Tech Nation refusing almost 90% of Global Talent endorsement applications

The refusal rate for Global Talent visa endorsement by Tech Nation is running at almost 90%.

What's going on?

What the numbers show

Tech Nation refusal rates have always been high. The data is patchy and largely pieced together from FOI requests, but the picture looks like this:

- **2019-2023:** around 50%

- **2024:** a little higher, at around 65%

- **2025-2026:** the current peak, at almost 90%

Two things stand out.

**This is the UK's only real visa route for international tech talent outside sponsored work, and nine in ten applicants are being refused.** That is happening at a time of revolution in digital technology.

**Applicants and decision-makers are reading the same guidance and reaching opposite conclusions.** The latest FOI release reports around 4,800 applicants who read the guidance and concluded it applied to them. In over 4,000 of those cases, the decision-maker disagreed.

The review stage tells a similar story. Of those roughly 4,000 refusals, around 1,900 appeals were decided. The success rate for those appeals was 4%.

Why is it happening?

I only have anecdotal evidence, but I am seeing far more applications put together with AI in my caseload.

There is a gap between what appears acceptable on the letter of the guidance, which is what an AI tool will use to build application documents, and what Tech Nation actually deems acceptable. The two are very different.

This is pattern recognition and judgement, which is why I worry less about the future of the legal profession in areas like this. Having an application checked by someone who has done a lot of them seems to me a fairly uncontroversial idea.

On the other hand, people on message boards say you don't need a lawyer to apply to Tech Nation because they were fine when they applied. With so few data points available, it is hard to test that claim either way.

I may be wrong, and more lawyers may not be what is needed.

Perhaps more people are simply chancing their arm because there are fewer other visa options and fewer sponsored roles available, while the number of exceptionally talented or promising tech people has not changed.