Tech Nation endorsement success rates by nationality
A recent Freedom of Information response gives a breakdown of Tech Nation endorsement decisions by nationality for the financial years 2024-25 and 2025-26.
The Home Office's own percentages are easy to misread, so we have calculated the success rate for each nationality, which is the figure applicants actually care about.
Success rate by nationality, 2025-26
Success rate is endorsements divided by total applications for that nationality. Rates are rounded to one decimal place, and the change on the previous year (2024-25) is shown in percentage points. "n/a" means the nationality does not appear in the 2024-25 published list.
| Nationality | Applications | Endorsed | Success rate | Change on 2024-25 (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 31 | 14 | 45.2% | +16.6 |
| Israel | 45 | 18 | 40.0% | -9.1 |
| Russia | 357 | 115 | 32.2% | -16.9 |
| USA | 269 | 83 | 30.9% | -9.7 |
| China | 153 | 46 | 30.1% | -17.2 |
| Egypt | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | +5.3 |
| Germany | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | -21.9 |
| Ukraine | 102 | 25 | 24.5% | -22.9 |
| Australia | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | n/a |
| Turkey | 149 | 24 | 16.1% | -10.3 |
| South Africa | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | n/a |
| Canada | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | -22.9 |
| India | 685 | 78 | 11.4% | -9.7 |
| Bangladesh | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | -16.2 |
| Iran | 103 | 11 | 10.7% | -8.4 |
| Brazil | 22 | 2 | 9.1% | n/a |
| Ghana | 46 | 4 | 8.7% | -6.3 |
| Kenya | 23 | 2 | 8.7% | n/a |
| Pakistan | 191 | 9 | 4.7% | -14.6 |
| Sri Lanka | 25 | 1 | 4.0% | -5.4 |
| Nigeria | 1,303 | 42 | 3.2% | -10.1 |
| All nationalities | 4,087 | 587 | 14.4% | -12.2 |
Does this tell us anything?
Success rates fell for almost every nationality that appears in both years. Several of the largest drops were among nationalities with historically higher success rates: Ukraine (-22.9 points), Canada (-22.9), Germany (-21.9), China (-17.2) and Russia (-16.9). The pattern suggests a change affecting the route as a whole.
Nigeria is the largest group of applicants and has the lowest success rate. Nigerian nationals made up about 32% of all applications in 2025-26 (1,303 of 4,087), nearly double the number from India. Only 42 were endorsed, a success rate of 3.2%, down from 13.3% the year before.
Nigeria has more than 20,000 startups, the most in Africa, and GitHub data showed its developer community growing faster than almost any other country's in 2023. Startup funding did soften in 2025, but nothing in the sector's fortunes explains a fall of this size in a single year.
The data cannot tell us whether the applicant pool changed, whether the guidance is being applied differently, or both.
India is the second-largest group. Success rates for Indian applicants roughly halved, from 21.1% to 11.4%, while applications rose from 541 to 685. Pakistan's volume more than doubled and its success rate collapsed. Applications rose from 88 to 191, and the success rate fell from 19.3% to 4.7%.
Israel (40.0%), Russia (32.2%), the USA (30.9%) and China (30.1%) had the highest success rates among the larger groups in 2025-26, but all were lower than the year before.
What the data does show is a sharp fall in the endorsement success rate across the board, at a time when applications are rising.
Whatever is driving it, it deserves explanation from Tech Nation and the Home Office.
Edgewater Legal advises on Global Talent endorsement applications, including the Tech Nation, Arts Council and academic routes. Get in touch if you would like an application reviewed.
Full data tables as published
Reproduced from Home Office response FOI2026/08464. The percentage columns are shares of all endorsements and all refusals respectively, not success rates.
2024-25
| Nationality | Total | Endorsed | Not Endorsed | Endorsed % | Not Endorsed % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 1237 | 164 | 1073 | 17.19% | 40.71% |
| India | 541 | 114 | 427 | 11.95% | 16.20% |
| Russia | 389 | 191 | 198 | 20.02% | 7.51% |
| USA | 217 | 88 | 129 | 9.22% | 4.89% |
| Turkey | 129 | 34 | 95 | 3.56% | 3.60% |
| Pakistan | 88 | 17 | 71 | 1.78% | 2.69% |
| China | 129 | 61 | 68 | 6.39% | 2.58% |
| Iran | 68 | 13 | 55 | 1.36% | 2.09% |
| Ukraine | 78 | 37 | 41 | 3.88% | 1.56% |
| Ghana | 40 | 6 | 34 | 0.63% | 1.29% |
| Sri Lanka | 32 | 3 | 29 | 0.31% | 1.10% |
| Israel | 55 | 27 | 28 | 2.83% | 1.06% |
| Canada | 32 | 12 | 20 | 1.26% | 0.76% |
| France | 28 | 8 | 20 | 0.84% | 0.76% |
| Egypt | 24 | 5 | 19 | 0.52% | 0.72% |
| Belarus | 29 | 12 | 17 | 1.26% | 0.64% |
| Bangladesh | 22 | 6 | 16 | 0.63% | 0.61% |
| Taiwan | 17 | 3 | 14 | 0.31% | 0.53% |
| Cameroon | 15 | 3 | 12 | 0.31% | 0.46% |
| Germany | 23 | 11 | 12 | 1.15% | 0.46% |
2024-25 totals (all nationalities): Total 3,590 | Endorsed 954 | Not Endorsed 2,636
2025-26
| Nationality | Total | Endorsed | Not Endorsed | Endorsed % | Not Endorsed % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 1303 | 42 | 1261 | 7.16% | 36.06% |
| India | 685 | 78 | 607 | 13.29% | 17.36% |
| Russia | 357 | 115 | 242 | 19.59% | 6.92% |
| USA | 269 | 83 | 186 | 14.14% | 5.32% |
| Pakistan | 191 | 9 | 182 | 1.53% | 5.20% |
| Turkey | 149 | 24 | 125 | 4.09% | 3.57% |
| China | 153 | 46 | 107 | 7.84% | 3.06% |
| Iran | 103 | 11 | 92 | 1.87% | 2.63% |
| Ukraine | 102 | 25 | 77 | 4.26% | 2.20% |
| Ghana | 46 | 4 | 42 | 0.68% | 1.20% |
| Canada | 41 | 6 | 35 | 1.02% | 1.00% |
| Israel | 45 | 18 | 27 | 3.07% | 0.77% |
| Sri Lanka | 25 | 1 | 24 | 0.17% | 0.69% |
| Australia | 29 | 5 | 24 | 0.14% | 0.69% |
| Kenya | 23 | 2 | 21 | 0.34% | 0.60% |
| Germany | 27 | 7 | 20 | 1.19% | 0.57% |
| Brazil | 22 | 2 | 20 | 0.34% | 0.57% |
| France | 31 | 14 | 17 | 2.39% | 0.49% |
| Egypt | 23 | 6 | 17 | 1.02% | 0.49% |
| Bangladesh | 18 | 2 | 16 | 0.34% | 0.46% |
| South Africa | 19 | 3 | 16 | 0.51% | 0.46% |
2025-26 totals (all nationalities): Total 4,087 | Endorsed 587 | Not Endorsed 3,497
Notes on the published figures: the 2025-26 endorsed and not-endorsed totals (587 + 3,497) add up to 4,084, not the stated total of 4,087. The 0.14% shown for Australia's endorsed share appears inconsistent with its 5 endorsements (5 of 587 is about 0.85%). Both are reproduced as published.